G.O.P.’s Health Care Tightrope Winds Through the Blue-Collar Midwest

although right now that will the idea can be Mr. Trump’s Republican Party, those who elected him will expect him to fulfill his campaign commitments.

Few Republicans can appreciate the political challenges of the Affordable Care Act like Davy Carter, a Republican in addition to former speaker of the Arkansas House, who shepherded the law’s Medicaid expansion through his conservative legislature in a state where President Barack Obama was disdained.

“If he doesn’t do what he said he was going to do, the idea will alienate the very voters that will put him in office,” Mr. Carter said, referring to Mr. Trump.

He features a warning for fellow Republicans who represent states with large working-class populations that will, like his own, have shifted away by their Democratic roots: They did not change parties because they suddenly became free-market conservatives.

Mr. Trump, who pledged repeatedly on the campaign trail to undo Mr. Obama’s “disastrous” health law, appears torn. He can be struggling between the political imperative to fulfill that will promise — essential both for symbolic purposes of notching a win in addition to for procedural reasons to go forward with an overhaul of the tax code — in addition to his assurances that will “everyone will be covered” under the brand new system.

“We will take care of our people or I’m not signing the idea,” he said when pressed in a Fox News interview last week about how his voters might fare.

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Mr. Waltimire keeps police memorabilia at his father’s home in Napoleon.

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Maddie McGarvey for The brand new York Times

If Congress moves ahead with the House type of the bill, vulnerable voters might find some allies within the health industry: Hospitals that will serve the rural regions in what could be called Trump country would likely be particularly vulnerable. Their patients tend to be older, poorer in addition to sicker, in addition to their profit margins much narrower, if they make any profit at all.

Mike Abrams, president in addition to chief executive of the Ohio Hospital Association, worries that will repeal of the health law could force some hospitals to close. “although honestly,” he said, “even if they didn’t close, they would likely have to make some decisions that will would likely be unwelcome by the community.”

At Defiance Regional, where Mr. Waltimire, the injured police officer, gets his care, Medicaid provides 22 percent of the revenue, up by 15 percent before the Affordable Care Act took effect. The 25-bed hospital, part of the ProMedica Health System in Toledo, has expanded mental health services in addition to can be adding a second medical office building.

Randy Oostra, ProMedica’s president in addition to chief executive, said the Republican proposal to give states a fixed amount of money for each person on Medicaid, instead of a large share of whatever each state needs to spend, would likely be particularly wrenching.

“the idea will drive down reimbursement over time, in addition to we’re going to start stripping care away,” Mr. Oostra said. “They may have Medicaid, although the idea’ll be so stripped down that will they basically won’t have coverage.”

For those who get private coverage through the Affordable Care Act marketplaces, the Republican plan would likely provide tax credits based on age instead of income to help with the cost. Independent analyses have found that will people in their 50s in addition to 60s would likely be especially likely to find coverage unaffordable under the brand new system, which would likely also allow insurers to charge older people 5 times as much as younger ones.

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Mr. Waltimire wonders how alterations in Medicaid under President Trump, for whom he voted, could affect his own health care situation.

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Maddie McGarvey for The brand new York Times

Pegge Sines, 62, of rural Edgerton, Ohio, did not vote for president, although her husband, a longtime factory worker who died of lung cancer in December, was an ardent Trump supporter. They had subsidized private insurance through the health care law that will covered virtually all his treatment, she said.

Ms. Sines right now pays $222 a month for her insurance by the Affordable Care Act marketplace, that has a tax credit of $712 covering the rest. that will $8,544 annual subsidy can be more than twice the $4,000 annual tax credit she would likely get under the Republican plan.

An aim of Republican legislation can be to reduce private premiums, although Ms. Sines’s son, who along with her some other two grown children signed up for Medicaid under the expansion, has been warning that will their coverage could be “in trouble,” she said. She cannot believe Mr. Trump would likely allow that will to happen.

“I can’t imagine them not keeping the idea like the idea can be right now,” said Ms. Sines, who runs a group home for the elderly.

Mr. Waltimire said he hoped to return to the police force, in addition to the health benefits the idea provides, This kind of year. although with no guarantee of Great health — he was injured in a fall in 2009 in addition to has had circulatory problems ever since — he also hopes some other options remain available.

“the idea’s kind of hard for me,” he said of having free government coverage. “I’ve always worked all my life. although like my counselor said, sometimes you just have to say thank you in addition to move forward.”

Referring to Mr. Trump, he added, “I trust he makes the idea to ensure that will everybody can afford insurance.”

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