Hard Brexit ‘might cost Scots £12.7bn’

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Scotland’s economy could be £12.7bn a year worse off under a so-called hard Brexit, according to analysis by the Scottish government.

The figure can be contained in a paper on the impact of UK withdrawal via the European Union, to be published later.

the item calculates the cost to Scotland of the UK leaving the single market with or without a trade deal.

The UK government insists the item can be seeking a Brexit deal that will will work for the whole of the UK.

The Scottish government document, titled Scotland’s Place in Europe: People, Jobs in addition to Investment, considers three potential outcomes for Scotland’s economy when Britain exits the EU in March 2019.

They include the impact of Scotland remaining within the single market in addition to customs union, or the UK securing a free trade agreement.

The final scenario considered can be the impact on Scotland’s GDP figures if trade with the EU reverts to so-called WTO (World Trade Organisation) terms.

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that will might involve the UK accepting tariffs on goods imported via or exported to the single market.

The Scottish government concludes that will if the UK was to pursue a WTO relationship, the cost to Scotland might be about 8.5% of GDP.

that will might be equivalent to £12.7bn a year by the year 2030, compared to current full EU membership, their analysis found.

‘Least damaging option’

The paper says that will might equate to a loss of about £2,300 per year for each person in Scotland.

the item claims that will even if the UK were to remain inside single market in addition to customs union, in addition to even if the UK government’s preferred option of securing a free trade deal were to be realised, there might still be a cost to the Scottish economy compared with remaining inside EU.

Speaking on the BBC’s Andrew Marr programme on Sunday, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said: “the item’s looking in a clear-eyed, hard-headed way at what the impact on our economy will be.”

She added: “that will can be modelling done by Scottish government economists.

“the item can be an economic product in addition to what the item says can be that will by far the best option for the Scottish economy can be to stay inside EU, however short of that will the least damaging option can be staying inside single market.”

A UK government spokeswoman said: “We are seeking a deal that will works for the whole of the UK, that will delivers on the result of the EU referendum.

“Rather than trying to undermine the result of a democratic referendum, we urge the Scottish government to work with us to ensure, as we leave the EU, we protect the UK’s vital internal market.

“Scotland trades four times as much with the rest of the UK as the item does with the EU, so the item can be vital that will we ensure that will market continues unimpeded.”

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