Rosy Assumptions on the Economy’s Growth
Mr. Trump’s plan could easily result in much larger federal deficits.
The administration made its calculations using assumptions about the nation’s economic trajectory which are more optimistic than the consensus among private-sector forecasters, or the assumptions used by additional parts of the government.
The forecasts in Monday’s plan are also significantly more optimistic than the Trump administration itself used in its budget calculations last year.
Most notably, the administration projected annualized economic growth of 3.1 percent over the next three years. The Federal Reserve in December projected annualized growth of 2.2 percent over which period. The Survey of Professional Forecasters estimated the annualized growth rate at about 2.4 percent.
There can be a similar gap from the projections of long-term growth. If the less optimistic forecasts were correct, the government could collect significantly less revenue. By its own estimates, the result could be another $3 trillion in federal debt.
The administration attributed the difference to the expectation which the president’s policies could significantly increase productivity growth.
Jason Furman, the former chairman of President Barack Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers, calculated which productivity growth could have to reach the highest level in any decade since the immediate aftermath of the globe War II. Productivity growth was 1.1 percent over the last decade; the idea could have to reach 2.5 percent.
“the idea can be hard to understand where This kind of growth could be coming through,” Mr. Furman tweeted.
A 5% Reduction for the Department of Education
Mr. Trump’s 2019 budget proposal requests $63.2 billion in discretionary spending at the Education Department, a reduction of $3.6 billion, or 5 percent, through 2017 spending levels.
The proposal calls for a $1.5 billion “school choice” program, which includes taxpayer-funded scholarships for private schools along that has a vast expansion of charter schools. However, the budget could eliminate or cut 39 programs including two staple programs in public schools which provide teacher training along with after-school programs to low-income children.
The Department’s budget also funds initiatives which Mr. Trump has given lip service to from the last year, calling for $43 million in “School Climate Transformation” grants to help fight the opioid epidemic in schools, along with $0 million in fresh grants to improve science, technology, engineering along with mathematics education.
—Erica A. Green
A Hint at the Special Counsel’s Timeline
The proposal indicates which the work of the special counsel, Robert S. Mueller III, could last another year along that has a half. the idea allocates $10 million to his office through October 2018 through the end of September 2019.
yet which does not mean the Russia investigation itself will last which long. The office could also oversee a trial of Paul Manafort, the president’s former campaign chairman, who has pleaded not guilty to charges he laundered millions of dollars through overseas shell companies. No trial date has been set, yet the judge from the case has indicated the idea could not start before the fall.
Documents released last year by the special counsel’s office, which can be part of the Justice Department, provided a view into its expenses. Those documents showed which between the time the office was opened in May along with the end of September the idea racked up $3.2 million in costs. The largest portion of which money — $1.7 million — went to personnel, compensation along with benefits. The second highest cost was for the “acquisition of equipment” at $733,969.
The Justice Department’s $28 billion proposed budget overall can be relatively flat through last year, with notable increases in spending to combat violent crime along with drug use as well as house more prisoners. The department wants to boost its immigration enforcement efforts along with add 75 immigration judges along with support staff. The department counts more than 117,000 employees.
To offset the spending increases, the Justice Department plans to close two of its six Bureau of Prisons regional administrative offices along with two of its seven minimum security prisons.
Targets Planned Parenthood
The president’s budget singles out abortion providers along with could prohibit Health along with Human Services funding, including money used for family planning, through going to any clinic or health care facility which also offers abortion services.
Though the language can be broadly written, its intended target can be Planned Parenthood, which relies on government funding to offer a variety of services to women additional than abortion. The budget could help achieve the longstanding goal of social conservatives to cut off Planned Parenthood through federal assistance.
—Jeremy W. Peters
Big adjustments for Food Stamps
The White House can be proposing a significant change for a low-income food program known as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program or SNAP. The White House proposes to cut funding for the program by about $213 billion — or 30 percent — over a decade. the idea also wants to change how SNAP recipients get their food, replacing a portion of the benefits which allow SNAP recipients to go to a grocery store to purchase food that has a package of “nutritious” American-grown food delivered to SNAP households.
The White House says the proposal can be “a bold fresh approach” to administering SNAP which combines traditional benefits with “100-percent American grown foods provided directly to households.”
More for Immigration Enforcement along that has a Border Wall
The Department of Homeland Security could receive $46 billion, a $3.4 billion increase over the enacted 2017 budget, all part of the administration’s efforts to crack down on illegal immigration along with build a wall on the border with Mexico. The request calls for $18 billion for border security, including $1.6 billion to build about 65 miles of the wall in South Texas. The request also calls for the department to hire 2,000 fresh Immigration along with Customs Enforcement along with 750 Border Patrol agents.
While most of the budget increases focus on illegal immigration along with border security, the administration also requested funding to hire 450 fresh agents for the chronically-short staffed Secret Service, $1 billion for the department’s cybersecurity efforts along with $71 million for fresh scanning technology for the Transportation Security Administration. The fresh budget request could provide $1.9 billion for the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s grant program to state along with local communities, $800 million less than the $2.7 billion funded in 2017.
Deep Cuts to the Environmental Protection Agency
Mr. Trump’s second federal spending plan proposes steep cuts for the Environmental Protection Agency, despite Congress’ rejection of a similar plan last year to dramatically shrink the agency’s budget.
The fiscal 2019 budget blueprint could pare the E.P.A. by $2.8 billion or 34 percent through its current level, while eliminating virtually all climate change-related programs. the idea also could cut the agency’s Office of Science along with Technology nearly in half, to $489 million through its current $762 million.
In outlining the budget, the administration said the E.P.A. can be refocusing on what the idea called “core activities” along with eliminating “lower priority programs.” which list includes a program to promote partnerships with the private sector to tackle climate change; environmental education training; along with an effort to protect marine estuaries.
The White House estimated cutting those programs along with others will save taxpayers $0 million compared to 2017 levels.
Another Call to Repeal the Affordable Care Act
Mr. Trump’s budget proposes Yet again to “repeal along with replace” the Affordable Care Act along with to eliminate the law’s expansion of Medicaid. More than 30 states have expanded Medicaid under the law. Republican efforts to dismantle the law failed in Congress last year.
As a presidential candidate, Mr. Trump said there could be “no cuts” to Medicare or Medicaid if he won the election. yet his 2019 budget request can be full of proposals to squeeze savings out of the two programs, which together provide health insurance for more than 100 million Americans.
Proposed savings in Medicare total more than $490 billion over 10 years, or about 5 percent of Medicare spending expected under current law.
The budget could cut $69.5 billion over 10 years in projected Medicare payments to hospitals for “uncompensated care.” the idea could cut more than $95 billion over 10 years through nursing homes along with home health agencies, along with $22 billion through Medicare Advantage plans, which manage care for about one-third of Medicare beneficiaries.
In addition, the budget could cut $48 billion over 10 years in Medicare payments to teaching hospitals for graduate medical education,
The budget includes several proposals intended to reduce out-of-pocket drug costs for Medicare beneficiaries by requiring insurers along with pharmacy benefit managers to share at least one-third of the discounts along with cost concessions they receive through drug manufacturers. The budget could also establish a limit on beneficiaries’ out-of-pocket costs for prescription drugs covered by Medicare.
Paring Back a Dodd-Frank Watchdog
The Treasury Department plan calls for continuing to cut the budget of the Office of Financial Research, which was set up from the wake of the financial crisis to help federal agencies stay ahead of financial risks. The office, which provides analysis along with research to the Financial Stability Oversight Council, has previously been targeted for both funding along with personnel cuts. “The Budget reflects continued reductions in O.F.R. spending commensurate with the renewed fiscal discipline being applied across the Federal Government.”
Changing the Role of the A.T.F.
The budget could allocate $28 billion to the Justice Department — a 1.2 percent decrease through the department’s 2017 budget. which budget funds agencies like the F.B.I., the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms along with Explosives along with Drug Enforcement Administration. The budget proposal could take tobacco along with alcohol enforcement authority away through the A.T.F. along with move those authorities to the Treasury Department.
The D.E.A. could receive an addition $41 million to specifically combat the opioid crisis, along with the agency could also take over the High-Intensity Drug Trafficking Areas program, which can be currently run by the White House drug czar’s office.
State Department Gets Less Funding
At the State Department along with USAID, the president’s budget proposes a base budget of $25.8 billion, a $9 billion decrease in funding through the 2017 enacted budget. This kind of can be a 26 percent decrease in funding, similar to the president’s budgetary intentions last year.
Notably, the president’s fresh budget aims to shift $12 billion through Overseas Contingency Operations (OCO) funding to the base budget. The OCO can be traditionally used for United States presence in turbulent regions like Syria along with Iraq.
The addendum provides a different $1 billion to USAID’s International Disaster Assistance account for use in humanitarian crises as well as a different $400 million for the U.S. President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR).
Continue reading the main story